39th Annual Student Research Conference
The Economics of Crime Perception: Discrepancies Between Public Belief and Official Crime Statistics in the U.S.
Leo M. Garlenc-Ricci* and Pujan Gauli
Dr. John McNeill, Faculty Mentor
This paper examines what shapes household perceptions of serious crime, focusing on whether they reflect actual crime rates or local conditions. Using over 25,000 observations from the 2023 American Housing Survey matched with 2022 FBI crime data across 15 U.S. metro areas, we estimate a binary logit model. Results show that objective violent crime rates have little economic significance once neighborhood and institutional factors are included. Instead, visible disorder, neighborhood dissatisfaction, and police presence have strong and statistically significant effects on perceived crime. This suggests that individuals rely more on immediate environmental and institutional cues than on broader crime trends. The findings highlight a gap between perceived and actual crime and carry important policy implications, as perceptions influence housing demand, investment, and local economic outcomes.
Keywords: Crime Perception, Neighborhood Disorder, Subjective Risk, Urban Economics, Behavioral Economics, Public Safety, Crime Statistics, Logit Model
Topic(s):Economics
Presentation Type: Oral Presentation
Session: -2
Location: SUB Georgian A
Time: 1:15