22nd Annual Student Research Conference
Metapopulation Model of a Rare Winter Annual Plant Species, Missouri Bladderpod
Jonathan D. Vollmer* and Brett L. Wiley
Dr. Michael Adams , Faculty Mentor
Missouri bladderpod (Lesquerella filiformis) is a federally threatened, rare plant species. One population is found on Bloody Hill Glade (BHG) at Wilson's Creek National Battlefield. We have developed a metapopulation model to simulate this populations dynamics through time. This model treats each permanently marked 5- X 5-m cell at BHG as potentially supporting independent subpopulations that exchange individuals through seed dispersal. The life-cycle of each subpopulation is modeled by a matrix model associated with habitat conditions in that cell. As it is impracticable to track fates of individual seeds, we developed a novel mathematical approach to modeling seed dispersal, melding graph theory with empirical habitat cover data. Our model allows simulation of prospective land management prescriptions e.g., removal of invasive cedars, practiced on BHG to predict changes in demographic and dispersal processes resulting from such an intervention. Our model can improve managers' decision-making, simultaneously conserving both human and biotic resources.
Keywords: MathBio, metapopulation, seed dispersal, habitat modeling, conservation, population dynamics, matrix model
Topic(s):Mathematical Biology
Interdisciplinary
Biology
Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Session: 33-2
Location: OP 2111
Time: 1:30