18th Annual Student Research Conference
Mathematics and Computer Science
An Open-Source Implementation of the Realistic Age-Structured (RAS) New Zealand Measles Model of Roberts and Tobias
Ben J. Delaware
Dr. Kenneth Carter, Faculty Mentor
Robert's and Tobias' RAS model carried significant weight in the decision to alter the country's schedule of vaccinations. However, no independent corroboration has been published. Our C++ re-implementations of this SIR model support several features of the published results and cast doubt on others. Concurrence exists between implementations and historical data in the two-year cycle of epidemics prior to vaccination, and in an approximate tripling of the inter-epidemic period thereafter. However, their graph shows annual outbreaks in the youngest population of susceptibles. Seasonal variation in infection rates seems an inadequate explanation; none of our results so far exhibit such outbreaks. Also, changes of less than 10% in initial values can lead to abrupt divergence of modeled trajectories even after 5 decades of close agreement. Though lack of published initial values for the coupled ODEs has prevented exact comparison, quantitative and qualitative discrepancies suggest the value of replication.
Keywords: C++, Model, Epidemic, Measles, Vaccination
Topic(s):Computer Science
Presentation Type: Poster
Session: 29-52
Location: OP Lobby & Atrium
Time: 1:15