25th Annual Student Research Conference
The Effects of Foreign Aid Shocks on Civil Armed Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Emily R. Wagman
Dr. John Quinn, Faculty Mentor
Foreign aid flows, especially changes in such flows, can substantially influence the internal environment of recipient states. This paper tests the connection between negative aid shocks and civil armed conflict by testing the independent effects of negative shocks on civil conflict in 48 Sub-Saharan African states from 1978-2008. Using logistic regression analysis, the hypothesis that significant decreases in foreign aid increase the risk of violent conflict is tested. Other variables included as controls are poor economic performance; mineral or oil-exporting states, especially those with 'lootable' resources; high levels of debt; ethnolinguistic fractionalization; political instability; and civil/human rights violations. Sub-Saharan Africa is chosen as an optimal regional case study, as weak governments and insurgency states are common. The region also receives a significant proportion of the world's foreign aid.
Keywords: aid, shock, Africa, conflict, instability, state, economic, rebel
Topic(s):Political Science
Interdisciplinary
Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Session: 301-5
Location: VH 1320
Time: 2:00