2005 Student Research Conference:
18th Annual Student Research Conference

Mathematics and Computer Science

An Open-Source Implementation of the Realistic Age-Structured (RAS) New Zealand Measles Model of Roberts and Tobias
Ben J. Delaware
Dr. Kenneth Carter, Faculty Mentor

Robert's and Tobias' RAS model carried significant weight in the decision to alter the country's schedule of vaccinations. However, no independent corroboration has been published. Our C++ re-implementations of this SIR model support several features of the published results and cast doubt on others. Concurrence exists between implementations and historical data in the two-year cycle of epidemics prior to vaccination, and in an approximate tripling of the inter-epidemic period thereafter. However, their graph shows annual outbreaks in the youngest population of susceptibles. Seasonal variation in infection rates seems an inadequate explanation; none of our results so far exhibit such outbreaks. Also, changes of less than 10% in initial values can lead to abrupt divergence of modeled trajectories even after 5 decades of close agreement. Though lack of published initial values for the coupled ODEs has prevented exact comparison, quantitative and qualitative discrepancies suggest the value of replication.

Keywords: C++, Model, Epidemic, Measles, Vaccination

Topic(s):Computer Science

Presentation Type: Poster

Session: 29-52
Location: OP Lobby & Atrium
Time: 1:15

Add to Custom Schedule

Contact SRC Webmaster  |  SRC Privacy Policy