2007 Student Research Conference:
20th Annual Student Research Conference

Business & Accountancy

Irrational Exuberance: Can It Be Predicted?
Robert J. Kelchen
Dr. Jason Lin, Faculty Mentor

In this paper, a multiple regression model is built to test whether market crashes can be predicted. Using time-series data for the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Composite Index as well as potential economic and consumer behavior indicators, we examine the stock market crashes of 1987 and 2000. The regression results exhibit that most economic and consumer variables have little impact on stock prices. However, this relationship becomes stronger when only data from closer to the crash date are used.

Keywords: Finance, Stock market, Business, Crashes, 1987, 2000

Topic(s):Business Administration

Presentation Type: Oral Paper

Session: 51-2
Location: VH 1010
Time: 3:00 pm

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