25th Annual Student Research Conference
Presidential Popularity and Midterm Gubernatorial Elections
Adam G. Crews
Dr. Candy Young, Faculty Mentor
Scholars have long acknowledged the existence of a midterm loss phenomenon, whereby the presidents political party typically loses seats in Congress during midterm elections. However, little attention has been paid to how governors of the presidents political party fare in such years. Based on the presidential popularity theory of midterm loss common in congressional election research, this paper proposes a model of voting behavior to explain gubernatorial election outcomes in midterm election years. Using data from the 2010 midterm elections, this linear regression model demonstrates the impact that presidential popularity has on midterm gubernatorial elections. Because the model is built primarily on polling data, it presents a step towards the creation of a predictive model of voting behavior for future election cycles. The practical ramifications of these findings are also discussed.
Keywords: President, Governor, Elections, Midterm
Topic(s):Political Science
Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Session: 301-4
Location: VH 1320
Time: 1:45