2021 Student Research Conference:
34th Annual Student Research Conference

Can Car Sales Reliably Predict Economic Activity?


Yogini K. Patel
Prof. Charles Boughton, Faculty Mentor

There are leading economic indicators that can predict economic activity, such as the stock market, manufacturing activity, retail sales, building permits, money supply, consumer expectations, etc. Leonard Mills researched if stock prices could reliably predict recessions, but it was found to be an unreliable leading economic indicator because of the false signals that it sometimes sends. There are many economic indicators, but they are not always reliable leading economic indicators. There are lagging economic indicators as well, such as the unemployment rate, interest rates, corporate earnings, consumer price index, etc. The purpose of this research is to study if new car sales in the U.S. can reliably predict economic activity in the U.S. The growth and decline of new car sales will be examined to see if there are any patterns or correlations with economic activity to determine if car sales are a reliable leading economic indicator.

Keywords: leading economic indicators, economic activity, lagging economic indicators, car sales

Topic(s):Business Administration
Economics

Presentation Type: Asynchronous Virtual Oral Presentation

Session: 5-3
Location: https://flipgrid.com/6a0ea4e7
Time: 0:00

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