2016 Student Research Conference:
29th Annual Student Research Conference

International Trade Dependence and Conflict Causation: A Data Analysis
Christy B. Crouse
Dr. John Quinn, Faculty Mentor

Trends in international relations suggest globalization is an ever-growing characteristic. In this analysis, the empirical support for the negative relationship between trade dependence and conflict in the form of MIDs was evaluated. Using data from 1870 to 2001,the likelihood of MID occurrence was tested using a binary logistic regression, holding the variables of state territorial contiguity and distance between state capitals, power parity, alliances, peace years, and joint democracy constant. Two different measures for trade dependence were used, employing equations from Oneal and Russett (1999) as well as Barbieri (2002). At the dyad-year level of analysis, weak support was found for the assertion that trade dependence reduces the occurrence of MIDs when using the Oneal and Russett equation. Using Barbieri's method, no significant relationship was found. These mixed results align with the ongoing discussion on the correlation of trade and conflict; at this juncture, no definitive answer exists.

Keywords: International Relations, Conflict, Conflict Causation, Binary Logistic Regression, Trade Dependence, Globalization, MID, Trade

Topic(s):Political Science
Statistics

Presentation Type: Oral Paper

Session: -4
Location: VH 1212
Time: 8:45

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