20th Annual Student Research Conference
Science
Epidemiological Kinetics: Using Compartment Models to Investigate the Effectiveness of School Closure During an Influenza Pandemic
Phuong Nguyen
Dr. Kenneth Carter, Faculty Mentor
The world is now facing the possibility a highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A virus might gain the capability of human-to-human transmission causing a pandemic. If there is an outbreak, lowering the maximum prevalence of the pandemic by social-distancing measures will help by reducing the demand for scarce resources of respiratory support and releasing pressure from the public health system. A Susceptible/Exposed/Infected/Recovered/Cross-immune (SEIRC) model has been constructed to predict the effectiveness of school closure during an influenza pandemic in Kirksville. For a basic reproduction number (R0) of 1.6, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infectious individual introduced into a completely susceptible population, the results show that closure of schools and colleges may be able to lower the prevalence at the peak of the pandemic from 312 to 36 cases (i.e., by about 88 percent). With an R0 of 4.0, results showed maximum prevalence reduced by about 71 percent.
Keywords: epidemiology, models, influenza, compartment
Topic(s):Chemistry
Presentation Type: Poster
Session: 8-1
Location: OP Lobby
Time: 4:15 pm